Downtown Austin Will Never Fill Up!
Gorgeous image of Austin’s growing skyline by Fellowship of the Rich.
Austin is in the midst of a massive explosion of population and housing growth and the downtown skyline is shadowed by endless, towering cranes and each new condo development is taller than the last. It seems like trillions of units are being approved to be built in the downtown area and many speculators are salivating over the impending doom of the high rise condo units, anticipating that there are so many being built that they will all sit there, collecting dust and they’ll swoop in and get incredibly bargain basement prices.
Wrong. Consider these facts:
- Austin’s downtown population is 6,000.
- That population is projected to double in 24 months.
- There are 4,000 units planned or under construction.
Texas economist Ray Perryman noted, “there is an ample population to absorb these units.” Oh really? Yes. Perryman posited that if less than 1% of Austin’s population decided to live in these units, they’d fill up in a snap!
There are many buildings that are completely lease units, other buildings are made up of individual units for sale, and there are proposed projects for affordable living, making downtown Austin an incredibly lucrative place to be.
Why are people moving downtown? Some move because of gas prices, others for traffic or the environmental impact of driving, others enjoy attached amenities (fitness centers, pools, etc. in the same building) while others move for the social scene of being immersed in the downtown environment. Others simply moved to the suburbs and it didn’t end up being a fit so they’re moving closer to the heart of the city.
So, for those saying that downtown Austin will never fill up, all I can say is that you’re wrong.
March 19th, 2008 at 10:27 pm
I would love to live down there once I graduate, I think that that would be the place to be - I just need a penthouse with a rooftop garden for the dog to run around in.
March 19th, 2008 at 10:33 pm
Interesting thoughts — even though I’m one of those who has their fingers crossed that you’re wrong. My parents bought their old house on the corner of Barton Springs & Lamar (behind the Talisman apartments) for $32,000 in 1972 during the real estate bust. It’s now at $650K. I’m hoping the bottom will fall out eventually.
Also, I’d be interested to hear your perspective on the proposed affordable downtown housing.
March 19th, 2008 at 10:56 pm
@David- that is so doable!
@MeanRachel- since I’m turning off the computer, check back tomorrow and I’ll write more in detail about your parents house and I’ll go ahead and write a followup article about affordable downtown housing!
March 20th, 2008 at 6:25 am
I fail to see the appeal of all that downtown development. What about yards? Backyards? Trees? Gardens (Flower and Vegetable)? Patios? BBQ pits? etc? Doesn’t anyone want to spend time out-of-doors? As in working in their own garden, etc?
Living in a place with no “outside” space would feel a lot like living in a prison block to me. I mean, really. Where would I put my chickens if there’s no back yard?
March 20th, 2008 at 8:18 am
Good luck with your analysis. It’s a tad flawed in that the credit market has tightened up and the cost/square foot in my mind outweighs the “wow-wee” factor you postulate. Plus little is mentioned about the HOA costs for the maintenance on these buildings. HOA fees are adjustable versus mortgages which are fixed.
This construction boom reminds me of Austin in the mid 80s. I suspect some of these projects will not come out of the ground. Plus I am not an advocate of what it is doing to the Capital View Corridor.
But what do I know? I’ve only lived here for 30 years.
March 20th, 2008 at 9:21 am
@Ruralist- you’re absolutely right, downtown isn’t for everybody. I personally desire the downtown area because I love Town Lake and being able to go walking somewhere. I enjoy sitting on a patio and looking out toward the Hill Country and I actually enjoy the noise of urban life and the busy feeling of downtown. I love living in Cedar Park but I do often miss living closer in to town because I have gorgeous neighborhoods to walk right now but would really enjoy jogging at Town Lake. If I had chickens, however, downtown would not be for me.
@Scott- although I’ve only been here 26 years, I agree that this feels like the boom of the 80s but I assure you that many hard lessons were learned back then. Some projects will not come to fruition as planned- just look at last year’s news that one of the largest projects to be sold as single units has had to resort to leasing each individually (when you don’t complete construction by projected dates, banks can pull funding and you either fail or become apartments). HOA fees will be too high for some people, absolutely.
Downtown is becoming populated by young professionals relocating from the coasts that are coming into Austin’s growing tech sector (even Google is setting up shop here) and a $300,000 brand new luxury condo downtown looks pretty good to someone who just sold their $700,000 1970’s condo efficiency with a view of the highway in the East Bay, Cali.
As for the Capitol View, I agree that the approval for the skyline is close but not yet quite to abusive of visual crowding. Thank goodness that many parts of downtown are considered historical districts and views of them cannot be obstructed, so believe me when I say that the City actually has standards of where skyrises can be (even if they don’t suit everyone’s tastes including mine). At Brazos Place, the view in all directions is protected because it’s a renovated, existing building in the middle of a historical area- I hope more renovation projects are taken on over new skyscrapers.
Look, the bottom line is that most of us native Austinites are hesitant about our skyline changing because we’re now amassing visual evidence that we’re not a small town anymore which has taken us 20 years to wrap our minds around. There are many benefits to the downtown developments and it simply feels like too much to us.
Consider this PRO argument: 4,000 units are approved. There are nearly 4,000 apartment units on the 3 mile stretch on 620 east of 2222 and no one cried “oh no, that’s bad” as all the Cedars were ripped down and species were transplanted deeper into the woods. This transition is good for our economic development and will attract more high dollar companies as we’re now becoming a real city.
Consider this CON argument: we like our skyline the way it is and if these units succeed, there will be more to come and there will be more Californians packing up and moving to the ATX. Trees are pretty but some people want to touch them in their yard, not just see them from their patios.
Y’all, I’m completely torn about this because I see the good and the bad. I think I’ll be writing more about this in the coming weeks because I think I side with the trees more than my article portrayed, I simply think that facts support Austin filling up whether we like it or not. Thanks for your thoughts and keep them coming!
March 20th, 2008 at 9:30 am
@all
As a guy who has lived here all of 8 years, I live Austin. I came for the career and the people, but I stayed for the quality of life. The hill country, trees, 2222, 620, downtown, South Austin, et al.
Lani and I have both ranted many times in the past about the distruction of green space, and the obstruction of views- hell, we even boycotted the domain until Simon malls promised to repopulate the Arboretum.
I was on the side of the highrise living would fail, but unfortunately the data is saying otherwise. What I do hope is the skepticism will slow the growth to a managable level, but I don’t see that happening. The good news in all of this is what I believed would look like a towering ghost town may in fact not be a ghost town at all. There are many major cities around the country that have that appearance, but Austin will not suffer that fate- fingers crossed.
Btw, we don’t do the downtown highrise because I can’t see truckin my dog down 40 stories just to stare at the hydrant in a shy manner. Ugh.
March 20th, 2008 at 9:48 am
I appreciate your response. However, I disagree the lessons of the 1980s have been learned. With all the loosy-goosy lending practices that led this nation (and a number of overseas lenders) to the sub-prime fiasco is going to bite some of the developers in posterior. Thank you Alan Greenspan for your lack of a thorough review on “new hybrid derivatives.” Sorry, but we taxpayers bought a bank last weekend (Bear Sterns) and as strong as everyone believes are market is here in Austin, I think sooner than later that the number of folks will default on there property and that impacts our tax base.
Iani, I hope your right in your analysis. But I really feel their is speculation going on here. But in support of your analysis, Travis County is one the top 100 fastest growing counties in the US, according to today’s Statesman.
Regarding 620, I never liked the amount of growth on that road. But I also remember when 620 was a 2-lane road and all you had out there was the trailer manufacturer, a really old school mechanic named Sheridan (who has since retired) and a funky burger shack at the NW corner of FM 2222/FM 620.
Our town is changing and we are torn between the new stuff and keeping our heritage. It’s still ATX, but its becoming a newer ATX. As long as we keep our attitudes and support our music, the artists and local businesses we’ll probably be all right.
March 20th, 2008 at 10:05 am
Scott- I think your last paragraph sums it up perfectly and I couldn’t have said it better myself! Keep Austin Wierd
March 20th, 2008 at 5:05 pm
PS: congrats to Rachel for being named today in the elite A-List of Austin’s Top Bloggers- hoorah!!!
March 21st, 2008 at 10:30 am
Hey thank you! It feels good to be recognized. FINALLY.
March 24th, 2008 at 6:17 am
Anyone interested in “Smart Growth”? Envision Central Texas is holding public hearings in the next couple weeks and they say they want to hear from you!
http://envisioncentraltexas.org/resources/resources_232_RGMflyer.pdf
ECT is a steering committee that uses “Smart Growth” and the “New Urbanism” as its growth models. Many people don’t know that Austin has adopted the “Smart Code” which creates “Urban Growth Boundaries”. The idea is to pack the people into densely populated areas defined by the Urban growth boundaries, then re-wilding every thing outside the boundaries. The loss of private property rights and the near dictatorial powers needed to accomplish these goals is considered a small price to pay.
Portland Oregon adopted Smart Growth many years ago and is considered by urban planners a success for smart growth. Some residents of Portland feel differently than the planners. Here’s what one resident had to say.
http://www.ti.org/portlandoped.html
These planners are using terminology that is confusing to the average person. If you decide to go to one of these hearings, and I hope you will, here is a translation for some of their jargon.
http://www.ti.org/FS6.html